Since the beginning of the year, 80% of stocks on the floor have increased, while up to 54% of businesses have lost profits or decreased profits over the same period.
According to statistics from Agriseco Securities experts, the price of many groups of stocks increased sharply and has started to surpass the peak in the past. Since the beginning of the year, 80% of stocks on the floor have increased, while up to 54% of businesses have lost profits or decreased profits over the same period.
In terms of valuation, the P/E and P/B valuation levels of many groups of stocks have ceased to be attractive and even approached the highlands compared to the past. Based on valuations at August 4, 8, 2023% and 38% of stocks listed on HOSE have higher P/B and P/E valuations than the last 46-year average, respectively. If compared to the end of 5 (before COVID-2019), up to about 19% of stocks have higher P/E and P/B than that time.
Agriseco Research forecasts that the market's profit will grow positively again in the second half of the year with third-quarter and fourth quarter growth of 10-12% and 50-55% respectively above the low base of the same period. Thereby, full-year profit can grow by 4-8% compared to last year.
"VN-Index will recover to 1,250 points by the end of 2023 on the basis that: The whole market profit can regain growth momentum in the second half of 2023 with a growth rate of 4-8% and a reasonable P/E of 13 times. In addition, favorable and disadvantageous factors are still intertwined from both domestic and foreign countries including inflation gradually cooling, exchange rates under control, interest rates falling..." - forecast experts.
In terms of stocks, in the opening stages of a new bull cycle of the market, large-cap stocks are often the earliest cash flow options, especially cash flows from institutional and foreign investors. Experts from Agriseco have filtered through the VN30 index basket to find stocks whose valuations are still low. The method is to compare P/B correlated with ROE profitability and compare P/B and P/E to the 5-year average.
For Method 1, only 3 out of 30 stocks are recording lower P/B valuations than before COVID-19 and at the same time have an improved ROE. Which includes TCB, VIC, VRE.
For Method 2, 11 out of 30 stocks are recording lower P/B and P/E valuations than the last 5-year average. In which, there are 6 bank stocks in the VN30 basket including ACB, HDB, MBB, TCB, TPB, VIB. There are also BVH, GAS, SAB, VHM, VRE stocks.
Therefore, to satisfy both of the above filtering methods, only 2 stocks in the VN2 basket currently have cheap valuations: TCB and VRE.
The expert said: "The valuation of the VN30 group is no longer too cheap. The group of stocks with P/E and P/B correlated valuations that are cheap compared to the past are mostly bank stocks."
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